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Arizona data center count on Kalshi
If the number of data centers listed by Data Center Map in Arizona at the end of December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET is at least 196, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Data Center Map.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
51% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arizona have at least 180 data centers this year? · At least 180 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 2,024 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona have at least 196 data centers this year? · At least 196 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,021 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona have at least 188 data centers this year? · At least 188 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 767 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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