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Auditor race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 West Virginia State Auditor election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, US State Governments, New York Times, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 West Virginia State Auditor race? · Republican party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 West Virginia State Auditor race? · Democratic party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington State Auditor race? · Republican party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington State Auditor race? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont Auditor of Accounts race? · Republican party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont Auditor of Accounts race? · Democratic party | 95¢ | 95% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Utah State Auditor race? · Republican party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Utah State Auditor race? · Democratic party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Pennsylvania Auditor General race? · Republican party | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Pennsylvania Auditor General race? · Democratic party | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 North Dakota State Auditor race? · Republican party | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 North Dakota State Auditor race? · Democratic party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 North Carolina State Auditor race? · Republican party | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 North Carolina State Auditor race? · Democratic party | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Montana State Auditor race? · Republican party | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Montana State Auditor race? · Democratic party | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2027 Mississippi State Auditor race? · Republican party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2027 Mississippi State Auditor race? · Democratic party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2027 Kentucky Auditor race? · Republican party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2027 Kentucky Auditor race? · Democratic party | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 02, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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