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Challenger ATP on Kalshi
If Michael Zheng wins the Hussey vs Zheng professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Knoxville Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 118 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Cruz Martin Manzano wins · Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 610,614 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Michael Geerts wins · Michael Geerts | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 367,388 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Ioannis Xilas wins · Ioannis Xilas | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 328,893 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Sergey Fomin wins · Sergey Fomin | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 221,243 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Lorenzo Angelini wins · Lorenzo Angelini | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 147,769 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Robin Bertrand wins · Robin Bertrand | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 146,857 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Dalibor Svrcina wins · Dalibor Svrcina | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 10,146 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Dino Prizmic wins · Dino Prizmic | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 8,958 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Braden Shick wins · Braden Shick | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 8,859 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Fabio Manuel Zavalaga Uculmana wins · Fabio Manuel Zavalaga Uculmana | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,903 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Daniil Glinka wins · Daniil Glinka | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 6,561 | Nov 24, 13:40 UTC |
| Otto Virtanen wins · Otto Virtanen | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 5,963 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Buvaysar Gadamauri wins · Buvaysar Gadamauri | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,974 | Nov 24, 11:10 UTC |
| Andres Andrade wins · Andres Andrade | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 4,492 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Michael Mmoh wins · Michael Mmoh | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 4,369 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Alex Barrena wins · Alex Barrena | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,299 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Aidan Mayo wins · Aidan Mayo | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 3,647 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Dusan Lajovic wins · Dusan Lajovic | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3,541 | Nov 24, 11:10 UTC |
| Stefan Kozlov wins · Stefan Kozlov | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 2,751 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Mattia Bellucci wins · Mattia Bellucci | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 2,626 | Nov 24, 11:10 UTC |
| Francesco Maestrelli wins · Francesco Maestrelli | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 2,414 | Nov 24, 09:10 UTC |
| Luca Nardi wins · Luca Nardi | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 2,290 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Daniel Altmaier wins · Daniel Altmaier | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 2,251 | Nov 24, 12:30 UTC |
| Jan Kumstat wins · Jan Kumstat | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 2,229 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Alastair Gray wins · Alastair Gray | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 2,182 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Lorenzo Giustino wins · Lorenzo Giustino | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 2,139 | Nov 24, 15:30 UTC |
| Nikolai Barsukov wins · Nikolai Barsukov | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2,011 | Nov 24, 14:20 UTC |
| Lui Maxted wins · Lui Maxted | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,673 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| Alexis Galarneau wins · Alexis Galarneau | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 1,444 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Jack Loge wins · Jack Loge | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 1,202 | Nov 24, 09:10 UTC |
| Darwin Blanch wins · Darwin Blanch | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 1,130 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Oskari Paldanius wins · Oskari Paldanius | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,092 | Nov 24, 10:20 UTC |
| Moez Echargui wins · Moez Echargui | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,066 | Nov 24, 14:20 UTC |
| Felix Gill wins · Felix Gill | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 955 | Nov 24, 09:10 UTC |
| Marcos Giron wins · Marcos Giron | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 940 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Elmer Moller wins · Elmer Moller | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 912 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Raul Brancaccio wins · Raul Brancaccio | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 883 | Nov 24, 10:20 UTC |
| Cezar Cretu (b. 2001) wins · Cezar Cretu (b. 2001) | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 842 | Nov 24, 11:30 UTC |
| Abdullah Shelbayh wins · Abdullah Shelbayh | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 786 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Marco Cecchinato wins · Marco Cecchinato | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 708 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 118 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.