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ATP Challenger Doubles Match on Kalshi
If Admir Kalender / Nino Serdarusic wins the Behar / Paris vs Kalender / Serdarusic professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Orleans Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
62%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
76% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 62¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.33 | 63.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusuke Kusuhara / Shunsuke Nakagawa wins · Yusuke Kusuhara / Shunsuke Nakagawa | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 210 | Nov 24, 04:30 UTC |
| Inigo Cervantes / Pedro Martinez wins · Inigo Cervantes / Pedro Martinez | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 70 | Nov 24, 12:20 UTC |
| Robin Catry / Vadym Ursu wins · Robin Catry / Vadym Ursu | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 34 | Nov 24, 12:20 UTC |
| Florian Broska / Jan Kumstat wins · Florian Broska / Jan Kumstat | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 6 | Nov 24, 06:30 UTC |
| Riki Takahata / Saki Tange wins · Riki Takahata / Saki Tange | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 1 | Nov 24, 04:30 UTC |
| Admir Kalender / Nino Serdarusic wins · Admir Kalender / Nino Serdarusic | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 24, 15:50 UTC |
| Ariel Behar / Joshua Paris wins · Ariel Behar / Joshua Paris | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 24, 15:50 UTC |
| Victor Vlad Cornea / Kai Wehnelt wins · Victor Vlad Cornea / Kai Wehnelt | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 24, 10:20 UTC |
| Umberto Giuseppe Capitanio / Tyler Haddorff wins · Umberto Giuseppe Capitanio / Tyler Haddorff | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 24, 10:20 UTC |
| Blake Bayldon / Thomas Fancutt wins · Blake Bayldon / Thomas Fancutt | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 24, 06:30 UTC |
| Jake Delaney / Jesse Delaney wins · Jake Delaney / Jesse Delaney | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 24, 06:30 UTC |
| Alafia Ayeni / Kokoro Isomura wins · Alafia Ayeni / Kokoro Isomura | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 24, 06:30 UTC |
| Arjun Kadhe / Aoran Wang wins · Arjun Kadhe / Aoran Wang | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:30 UTC |
| Kazushi Idogaki / Kentaro Otsuka wins · Kazushi Idogaki / Kentaro Otsuka | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.