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Men's Tournament Winner on Kalshi
If Adrian Mannarino wins the 2026 ATP Stockholm professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports, ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 137 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Carlos Alcaraz wins · Carlos Alcaraz | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 16,167 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Alexander Zverev wins · Alexander Zverev | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 11,651 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Ben Shelton wins · Ben Shelton | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 11,508 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Learner Tien wins · Learner Tien | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 11,155 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Novak Djokovic wins · Novak Djokovic | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,670 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Daniil Medvedev wins · Daniil Medvedev | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10,516 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Alex de Minaur wins · Alex de Minaur | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,047 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Jannik Sinner wins · Jannik Sinner | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 7,915 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Rafael Jodar wins · Rafael Jodar | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,251 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Arthur Fils wins · Arthur Fils | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,460 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Frances Tiafoe wins · Frances Tiafoe | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,982 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Felix Auger-Aliassime wins · Felix Auger-Aliassime | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,927 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Taylor Fritz wins · Taylor Fritz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,710 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Jakub Mensik wins · Jakub Mensik | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,537 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Flavio Cobolli wins · Flavio Cobolli | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,371 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Lorenzo Musetti wins · Lorenzo Musetti | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,014 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| French Open Men's Singles: Carlos Alcaraz wins · Carlos Alcaraz | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 1,399 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Tommy Paul wins · Tommy Paul | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,247 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Jiri Lehecka wins · Jiri Lehecka | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,187 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| ATP Stockholm: Taylor Fritz wins · Taylor Fritz | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 843 | Dec 19, 10:00 UTC |
| Australian Open Men's Singles: Brandon Nakashima wins · Brandon Nakashima | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 671 | Feb 15, 12:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Men's Singles: Jannik Sinner wins · Jannik Sinner | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 356 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
| French Open Men's Singles: Ben Shelton wins · Ben Shelton | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 354 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| French Open Men's Singles: Taylor Fritz wins · Taylor Fritz | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 347 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| ATP Stockholm: Casper Ruud wins · Casper Ruud | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 334 | Dec 19, 10:00 UTC |
| US Open Men's Singles: Jakub Mensik wins · Jakub Mensik | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 306 | Oct 05, 02:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Men's Singles: Taylor Fritz wins · Taylor Fritz | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 304 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Men's Singles: Ben Shelton wins · Ben Shelton | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 300 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Men's Singles: Carlos Alcaraz wins · Carlos Alcaraz | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 290 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
| US Open Men's Singles: Carlos Alcaraz wins · Carlos Alcaraz | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 270 | Oct 05, 02:00 UTC |
| US Open Men's Singles: Jannik Sinner wins · Jannik Sinner | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 264 | Oct 05, 02:00 UTC |
| French Open Men's Singles: Jannik Sinner wins · Jannik Sinner | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 243 | Jun 29, 02:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Men's Singles: Alexander Zverev wins · Alexander Zverev | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 241 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Men's Singles: Novak Djokovic wins · Novak Djokovic | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 180 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
| ATP Stockholm: Lorenzo Musetti wins · Lorenzo Musetti | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 87 | Dec 19, 10:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Men's Singles: Frances Tiafoe wins · Frances Tiafoe | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 85 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Men's Singles: Jakub Mensik wins · Jakub Mensik | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 85 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Men's Singles: Daniil Medvedev wins · Daniil Medvedev | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 85 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Men's Singles: Rafael Jodar wins · Rafael Jodar | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 85 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
| Wimbledon Men's Singles: Arthur Fils wins · Arthur Fils | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 85 | Aug 03, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 137 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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