What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.43.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Argentina Presidential election: first round winner? on Kalshi

If Victoria Villarruel wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Cámara Nacional Electoral.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

4% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.43	2.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Javier Milei	57¢	57%	1.7¢	—	85%	10,614	Oct 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Axel Kicillof win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Axel Kicillof	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	41%	2,417	Oct 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Sergio Massa win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Sergio Massa	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	2,307	Oct 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Juan Grabois win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Juan Grabois	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	1,559	Oct 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Patricia Bullrich win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Patricia Bullrich	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,527	Oct 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Myriam Bregman win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Myriam Bregman	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	1,434	Oct 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Victoria Villarruel win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Victoria Villarruel	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,388	Oct 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Mauricio Macri win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Mauricio Macri	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,344	Oct 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Juan Schiaretti win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election? · Juan Schiaretti	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,276	Oct 23, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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