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Anthropic Vercel spend share on Kalshi
If the Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs for Nov 12, 2026 is above 41.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards - Labs.
Market says (typical open contract)
83%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 83¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $0.60 | 84.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 30.9% · Above 30.9% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7,504 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 31.1% · Above 31.1% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,549 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 33.0% · Above 33.0% | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 1,787 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 35.5% · Above 35.5% | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 45 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 32.1% · Above 32.1% | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 31 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 39.4% · Above 39.4% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 13 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 35.6% · Above 35.6% | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 11 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 36.8% · Above 36.8% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 6 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 39.1% · Above 39.1% | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 4 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 30.6% · Above 30.6% | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 3 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 30.3% · Above 30.3% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 2 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 34.5% · Above 34.5% | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 2 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 41.0% · Above 41.0% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 39.1% · Above 39.1% | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 38.1% · Above 38.1% | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 36.6% · Above 36.6% | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 34.1% · Above 34.1% | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 41.8% · Above 41.8% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.