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Anthropic on Kalshi

If William Blair serves as a lead underwriter for Anthropic's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Business, ABC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, Financial Times, bank, NBC, company, The New York Times, EDGAR database, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, MarketWatch, Axios, Reuters, CNN, the Associated Press, CBS, Politico, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)0.6¢$3.199.6%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Stifel Financial take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Stifel Financial6¢6%0.4¢—12%3,565Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Rothschild & Co take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Rothschild & Co50¢50%1.7¢—99%2,802Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Mizuho take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Mizuho97¢97%0.2¢—7%2,546Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Allen & Company take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Allen & Company5¢5%0.3¢—10%2,458Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Qatalyst Partners take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Qatalyst Partners4¢4%0.3¢—8%2,375Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Centerview take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Centerview50¢50%1.7¢—99%2,304Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will William Blair take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · William Blair3¢3%0.2¢—6%1,334Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Evercore take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Evercore5¢5%0.3¢—10%1,141Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Greenhill & Co take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Greenhill & Co50¢50%1.7¢—99%1,110Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will PJT Partners take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · PJT Partners5¢5%0.3¢—10%1,020Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Raymond James take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Raymond James3¢3%0.2¢—6%633Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Piper Sandler take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Piper Sandler9¢9%0.6¢—18%469Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Moelis & Company take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Moelis & Company50¢50%1.7¢—99%218Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Perella Weinberg Partners take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Perella Weinberg Partners50¢50%1.7¢—99%131Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Lazard take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028? · Lazard50¢50%1.7¢—99%43Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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