Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Andorran parliamentary election winner on Kalshi
If the Social Democratic Party wins the next Andorran parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Government of Andorra.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
72% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Social Democratic Party win the next Andorran parliamentary election? · Social Democratic Party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | May 09, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats for Andorra win the next Andorran parliamentary election? · Democrats for Andorra | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | May 09, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Concòrdia win the next Andorran parliamentary election? · Concòrdia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 09, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Andorra Endavant win the next Andorran parliamentary election? · Andorra Endavant | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | May 09, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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