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America PAC total disbursements on Kalshi
If America PAC's FEC-reported total disbursements value is at least 160 million dollars during calendar year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FEC.
Market says (typical open contract)
94%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
13% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 94¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $0.21 | 94.4% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will America PAC's FEC-reported total disbursements value be at least 120000000 during calendar year 2026? · At least 120 million dollars | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 1,828 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will America PAC's FEC-reported total disbursements value be at least 140000000 during calendar year 2026? · At least 140 million dollars | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 975 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will America PAC's FEC-reported total disbursements value be at least 160000000 during calendar year 2026? · At least 160 million dollars | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 914 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will America PAC's FEC-reported total disbursements value be at least 90000000 during calendar year 2026? · At least 90 million dollars | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 262 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will America PAC's FEC-reported total disbursements value be at least 75000000 during calendar year 2026? · At least 75 million dollars | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 230 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will America PAC's FEC-reported total disbursements value be at least 105000000 during calendar year 2026? · At least 105 million dollars | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 44 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Will America PAC's FEC-reported total disbursements value be at least 60000000 during calendar year 2026? · At least 60 million dollars | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:58 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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