What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 60¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.42.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 61% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 60%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Commodities

Aluminum Midwest premium on Kalshi

If the official final settlement price of CME Aluminum MW U.S. Transaction Premium Platts (25MT) futures (AUP), November 2026 contract, as published by CME Group, is at least 95 U.S. cents per pound at the final settlement of the November 2026 AUP contract, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: CME Group - Aluminum Midwest Premium (AUP).

Market says (typical open contract)

60%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

81% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
59¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.44	60.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 90¢/lb? · 90¢ or above	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	95%	8,463	Nov 30, 05:00 UTC
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 85¢/lb? · 85¢ or above	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	81%	7,007	Nov 30, 05:00 UTC
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 105¢/lb? · 105¢ or above	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	68%	6,701	Nov 30, 05:00 UTC
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 95¢/lb? · 95¢ or above	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	64%	6,663	Nov 30, 05:00 UTC
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 100¢/lb? · 100¢ or above	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	75%	4,544	Nov 30, 05:00 UTC
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 80¢/lb? · 80¢ or above	71¢	71%	1.4¢	—	58%	4,418	Nov 30, 05:00 UTC
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 75¢/lb? · 75¢ or above	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	3,532	Nov 30, 05:00 UTC
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 110¢/lb? · 110¢ or above	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	81%	3,322	Nov 30, 05:00 UTC
Will the aluminum Midwest premium be at least 70¢/lb? · 70¢ or above	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	2,916	Nov 30, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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