Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment
WHO WILL RELEASE A NEW ALBUM on Kalshi
If Morgan Wallen releases a new album in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Spotify.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 72 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
45% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.73 | 23.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Billie Eilish release a new album in 2026? · Billie Eilish | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 26,109 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Clairo release a new album in 2026? · Clairo | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 14,852 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Offset release a new album in 2026? · Offset | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 13,834 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lana Del Rey release a new album in 2026? · Lana Del Rey | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 12,497 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jay-Z release a new album in 2026? · Jay-Z | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 12,177 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will sombr release a new album in 2026? · sombr | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 12,106 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will John Mayer release a new album in 2026? · John Mayer | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 11,942 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Esdeekid release a new album in 2026? · EsDeeKid | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 11,894 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Post Malone release a new album in 2026? · Post Malone | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 11,860 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in 2026? · Kendrick Lamar | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 11,280 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Frank Ocean release a new album in 2026? · Frank Ocean | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 11,277 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Playboi Carti release a new album in 2026? · Playboi Carti | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 10,926 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Justin Bieber release a new album in 2026? · Justin Bieber | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 10,384 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Travis Scott release a new album in 2026? · Travis Scott | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 10,320 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tyler, The Creator release a new album in 2026? · Tyler, The Creator | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 10,194 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Grimes release a new album in 2026? · Grimes | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 9,090 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter release a new album in 2026? · Sabrina Carpenter | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 8,878 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Benson Boone release a new album in 2026? · Benson Boone | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,464 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae release a new album in 2026? · Tate McRae | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 6,633 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Doja Cat release a new album in 2026? · Doja Cat | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 6,632 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Calvin Harris release a new album in 2026? · Calvin Harris | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 6,404 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pharrell Williams release a new album in 2026? · Pharrell Williams | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 5,661 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dua Lipa release a new album in 2026? · Dua Lipa | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 5,214 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will USHER release a new album in 2026? · USHER | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 5,147 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rihanna release a new album in 2026? · Rihanna | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,104 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will 2 Chainz release a new album in 2026? · 2 Chainz | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 4,597 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Megan Thee Stallion release a new album in 2026? · Megan Thee Stallion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,255 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bryson Tiller release a new album in 2026? · Bryson Tiller | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 4,002 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny release a new album in 2026? · Bad Bunny | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 3,847 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Geese release a new album in 2026? · Geese | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,807 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Khalid release a new album in 2026? · Khalid | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 3,699 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kali Uchis release a new album in 2026? · Kali Uchis | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 3,686 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Nicki Minaj release a new album in 2026? · Nicki Minaj | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 3,494 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Marías release a new album in 2026? · The Marías | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 3,441 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anuel AA release a new album in 2026? · Anuel AA | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 3,363 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Justin Timberlake release a new album in 2026? · Justin Timberlake | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 3,299 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ROSALÍA release a new album in 2026? · ROSALÍA | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 3,264 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Olivia Dean release a new album in 2026? · Olivia Dean | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 2,980 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SZA release a new album in 2026? · SZA | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 2,825 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Eminem release a new album in 2026? · Eminem | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,797 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 72 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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