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How many album equivalent will album sell on Kalshi
If FRESH by Lil Baby has above 65K Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Luminate.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 127 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will FRESH by Lil Baby have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 60K | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 15,247 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 400000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 400K | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 10,674 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 300000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 300K | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 10,356 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will FRESH by Lil Baby have above 80000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 80K | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9,206 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 380000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 380K | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 8,578 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will FRESH by Lil Baby have above 100000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 100K | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 7,908 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 280000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 280K | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 7,310 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 320000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 320K | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 6,663 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 360000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 360K | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 6,209 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 240000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 240K | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 6,119 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album by The Hunger Games have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week? · Above 40K | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 5,689 | Nov 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 200000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 200K | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 5,585 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 340000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 340K | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 5,205 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 140K | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 4,796 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 180000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 180K | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 4,638 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will FRESH by Lil Baby have above 120000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 120K | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,538 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 120000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 120K | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 4,519 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 260000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 260K | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 4,393 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 220000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 220K | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 4,194 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SWALLOW! by Shygirl have above 3000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 3K | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 3,579 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 160000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 160K | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 3,092 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sweet Action II by Jack Harlow have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 10K | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,971 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 100000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 100K | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,249 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will REBECCA by Becky Hill have above 8000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week? · Above 8K | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,185 | Nov 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will REBECCA by Becky Hill have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week? · Above 5K | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 2,099 | Nov 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SWALLOW! by Shygirl have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 5K | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 1,990 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will REBECCA by Becky Hill have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week? · Above 10K | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,883 | Nov 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will FRESH by Lil Baby have above 380000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 380K | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,790 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SWALLOW! by Shygirl have above 1000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 1K | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,786 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album by The Hunger Games have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week? · Above 30K | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,756 | Nov 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dream Fatigue by Rex Orange County have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 30K | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,627 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album by Grand Theft Auto VI have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 20, 2026 -November 26, 2026 tracking week? · Above 60K | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,589 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will REBECCA by Becky Hill have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week? · Above 2K | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 1,423 | Nov 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dream Fatigue by Rex Orange County have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 25K | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,333 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sweet Action II by Jack Harlow have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 15K | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,330 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dream Fatigue by Rex Orange County have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 20K | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,286 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Fork and Knife by Skepta have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 15K | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,135 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sweet Action II by Jack Harlow have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 06, 2026 - November 12, 2026 tracking week? · Above 20K | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,019 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album by The Hunger Games have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week? · Above 25K | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,015 | Nov 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album by The Hunger Games have above 80000 Album Equivalent Units during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week? · Above 80K | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,005 | Nov 22, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 127 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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