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Who will win the Alaska Senate race? on Kalshi
If Gerald Heikes wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race? · Dan Sullivan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,126,779 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race? · Mary Peltola | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,239,402 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel J. Sullivan win 2026 Alaska Senate race? · Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 109,479 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ann Diener win the 2026 Alaska Senate race? · Ann Diener | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 12,120 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Richard Grayson win the 2026 Alaska Senate race? · Richard Grayson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 7,288 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sid Hill win the 2026 Alaska Senate race? · Sid Hill | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 7,268 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gerald Heikes win the 2026 Alaska Senate race? · Gerald Heikes | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 147 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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