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AHL Game on Kalshi
If San Jose Barracuda wins the San Jose Barracuda vs San Diego Gulls professional AHL hockey game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: AHL.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartford Wolf Pack wins · Hartford Wolf Pack | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 513 | Nov 12, 15:35 UTC |
| Milwaukee Admirals wins · Milwaukee Admirals | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 275 | Nov 12, 16:30 UTC |
| Manitoba Moose wins · Manitoba Moose | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 58 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Iowa Wild wins · Iowa Wild | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 52 | Nov 12, 16:30 UTC |
| Springfield Thunderbirds wins · Springfield Thunderbirds | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 41 | Nov 12, 15:35 UTC |
| Bakersfield Condors wins · Bakersfield Condors | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 35 | Nov 13, 02:40 UTC |
| Hershey Bears wins · Hershey Bears | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 20 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Grand Rapids Griffins wins · Grand Rapids Griffins | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 20 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Wilkes Barre-Scranton Penguins wins · Wilkes Barre-Scranton Penguins | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 12, 23:35 UTC |
| Providence Bruins wins · Providence Bruins | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| San Jose Barracuda wins · San Jose Barracuda | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| San Diego Gulls wins · San Diego Gulls | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Texas Stars wins · Texas Stars | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Manitoba Moose wins · Manitoba Moose | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Providence Bruins wins · Providence Bruins | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Charlotte Checkers wins · Charlotte Checkers | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Hamilton Hammers wins · Hamilton Hammers | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Colorado Eagles wins · Colorado Eagles | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Abbotsford Canucks wins · Abbotsford Canucks | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Syracuse Crunch wins · Syracuse Crunch | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Laval Rocket wins · Laval Rocket | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Utica Comets wins · Utica Comets | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 23:00 UTC |
| Belleville Senators wins · Belleville Senators | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 13, 23:00 UTC |
| Rockford Icehogs wins · Rockford Icehogs | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Calgary Wranglers wins · Calgary Wranglers | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:40 UTC |
| Colorado Eagles wins · Colorado Eagles | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Abbotsford Canucks wins · Abbotsford Canucks | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Texas Stars wins · Texas Stars | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Charlotte Checkers wins · Charlotte Checkers | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Utica Comets wins · Utica Comets | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 12, 23:35 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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