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AFCON Game Winner on Kalshi
If Uganda wins the Uganda vs Botswana professional AFCON Qualifiers soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: BBC Sport, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 72 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
36% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.87 | 19.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somalia wins · Somalia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,195 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Mali wins · Mali | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 2,512 | Nov 15, 19:00 UTC |
| Niger wins · Niger | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,483 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Morocco wins · Morocco | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 2,179 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Sudan wins · Sudan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,448 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Congo DR wins · Congo DR | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 1,428 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Malawi wins · Malawi | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,130 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Eritrea wins · Eritrea | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 976 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Nigeria wins · Nigeria | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 868 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| South Sudan wins · South Sudan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 708 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 640 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Egypt wins · Egypt | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 627 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 615 | Nov 15, 20:00 UTC |
| Namibia wins · Namibia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 527 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Ghana wins · Ghana | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 510 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Guinea wins · Guinea | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 458 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Senegal wins · Senegal | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 399 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Equatorial Guinea wins · Equatorial Guinea | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 344 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Angola wins · Angola | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 340 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Libya wins · Libya | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 251 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 249 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Congo Republic wins · Congo Republic | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 241 | Nov 15, 13:00 UTC |
| Sierra Leone wins · Sierra Leone | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 239 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Zimbabwe wins · Zimbabwe | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 204 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Zambia wins · Zambia | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 164 | Nov 15, 13:00 UTC |
| Liberia wins · Liberia | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 150 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Algeria wins · Algeria | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 122 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Kenya wins · Kenya | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 104 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Rwanda wins · Rwanda | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 104 | Nov 15, 19:00 UTC |
| Ivory Coast wins · Ivory Coast | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 69 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 63 | Nov 16, 16:00 UTC |
| Gabon wins · Gabon | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 62 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Uganda wins · Uganda | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 57 | Nov 16, 16:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 55 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Lesotho wins · Lesotho | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 51 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Tunisia wins · Tunisia | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 49 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| South Africa wins · South Africa | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 27 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
| Cameroon wins · Cameroon | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 26 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Botswana wins · Botswana | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 21 | Nov 16, 16:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 21 | Nov 15, 16:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 72 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.