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1st Half Spread on Kalshi
If Guinea win by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half of the Guinea vs Eritrea professional AFCON Qualifiers soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somalia wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Somalia wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 70 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Guinea wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Guinea wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Eritrea wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Eritrea wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Madagascar wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Madagascar wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Guinea-Bissau wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Guinea-Bissau wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Zimbabwe wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Zimbabwe wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Equatorial Guinea wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Equatorial Guinea wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Sierra Leone wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Sierra Leone wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Congo DR wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Congo DR wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 14, 16:00 UTC |
| Ghana wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Ghana wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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