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Adobe Mention on Kalshi
If Shantanu Narayen says YouTube as part of Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Adobe Inc. Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
45% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Event does not qualify | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 9,448 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Acrobat | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 250 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Firefly Video | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 233 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Premiere | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 166 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Adobe Express | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 138 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Disney | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 134 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · NVIDIA | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 132 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · GenStudio | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 120 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Generative Fill | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 99 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Photoshop | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 79 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Content Credential | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 60 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · 3D | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 57 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Topaz Labs | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 50 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Generative AI / Gen AI | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 29 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · YouTube | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 15 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Copyright | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 15 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX 2026 — Opening Keynote originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · OpenAI / ChatGPT | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 3 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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