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WHO WILL BE THE ACTOR IN WHITELOTUS on Kalshi
If Deepika Padukone is cast in The White Lotus: Season 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico, The Hollywood Reporter.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 23 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
15% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oscar Isaac be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Oscar Isaac | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 19,829 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jodie Comer be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Jodie Comer | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 15,571 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Deepika Padukone be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Deepika Padukone | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 10,573 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Toni Collette be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Toni Collette | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 7,624 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rachel Weisz be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Rachel Weisz | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 4,467 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marion Cotillard be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Marion Cotillard | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,899 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Olivia Colman be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Olivia Colman | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,895 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Paul Mescal be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Paul Mescal | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,873 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Léa Seydoux be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Léa Seydoux | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 2,251 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrew Scott be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Andrew Scott | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,742 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Phoebe Waller-Bridge be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Phoebe Waller-Bridge | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,529 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Adam Driver be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Adam Driver | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 845 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sarah Snook be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Sarah Snook | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 813 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rooney Mara be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Rooney Mara | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 464 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florence Pugh be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Florence Pugh | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 442 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Barry Keoghan be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Barry Keoghan | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 424 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cate Blanchett be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Cate Blanchett | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 263 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jeremy Strong be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Jeremy Strong | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 218 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacob Elordi be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Jacob Elordi | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 139 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Emma Corrin be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Emma Corrin | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 100 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Isabelle Huppert be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Isabelle Huppert | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 96 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dev Patel be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Dev Patel | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 57 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Riz Ahmed be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4? · Riz Ahmed | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 21 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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