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Spain Liga ACB Game on Kalshi
If Basket Zaragoza 2002 wins the Basket Zaragoza 2002 vs Club Joventut Badalona men's professional Spain Liga ACB basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sofascore, ESPN, 365 Scores, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
64%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
71% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 65¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.23 | 66.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket Zaragoza 2002 wins · Basket Zaragoza 2002 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Club Joventut Badalona wins · Club Joventut Badalona | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| CB 1939 Canarias wins · CB 1939 Canarias | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 16, 18:30 UTC |
| BC Andorra wins · BC Andorra | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 16, 18:30 UTC |
| CB San Pablo Burgos wins · CB San Pablo Burgos | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| CB Breogan wins · CB Breogan | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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