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Air Canada Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Air Canada reports Above 90% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
86%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
29% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 85¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $0.53 | 85.9% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Air Canada report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in 2026? · Above 85.5% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 5,668 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 86.5% passenger load factor in 2026? · Above 86.5% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 5,474 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 86% passenger load factor in 2026? · Above 86% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 4,638 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 89% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026? · Above 89% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,379 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 84% passenger load factor in 2026? · Above 84% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,229 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 88.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026? · Above 88.5% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,181 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 87% passenger load factor in 2026? · Above 87% | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,691 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 89.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026? · Above 89.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,265 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in 2026? · Above 83.5% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,184 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 90% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026? · Above 90% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,184 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in 2026? · Above 84.5% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 905 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 85% passenger load factor in 2026? · Above 85% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 873 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 88% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026? · Above 88% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 537 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 87.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026? · Above 87.5% | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 478 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 83% passenger load factor in 2026? · Above 83% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 155 | May 02, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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