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Air Canada KPI on Kalshi
If Air Canada reports Above 93.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
41%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
82% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 41¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.07 | 42.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Air Canada report Above 93.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 93.5% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,782 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 88.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 88.5% | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 2,600 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 91.0% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 91.0% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,469 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 89.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 89.5% | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,086 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 90.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 90.5% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 807 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 89.0% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 89.0% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 742 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 88.0% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 88.0% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 475 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 90.0% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 90.0% | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 429 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 87.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 87.5% | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 180 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 86.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 86.5% | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 16 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 87.0% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 87.0% | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 86.0% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 86.0% | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 85.5% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 85.0% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 85.0% | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 84.5% | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 84.0% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 84.0% | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Air Canada report Above 81.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 81.5% | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 28, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.