What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.73.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

US gas price on Kalshi

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $5.00 on Nov 30, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: AAA.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 26 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
51¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.72	52.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will average gas prices be above $4.00? · Above 4.00	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	98,042	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.90? · Above 3.90	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	78,433	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.80? · Above 3.80	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	77,080	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.10? · Above 4.10	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	64,776	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.40? · Above 3.40	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	60,589	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.20? · Above 4.20	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	49,902	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.70? · Above 3.70	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	36,662	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.50? · Above 3.50	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	34,408	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.60? · Above 3.60	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	41%	27,723	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $2.50? · Above 2.50	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	27,025	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.30? · Above 4.30	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	22,433	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.40? · Above 4.40	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	22,119	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.90? · Above 4.90	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	21,100	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.30? · Above 3.30	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	20,606	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $5.00? · Above 5.00	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	16,975	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.80? · Above 4.80	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	13,166	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.60? · Above 4.60	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	10,537	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.50? · Above 4.50	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	10,202	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $2.70? · Above 2.70	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	10,122	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.70? · Above 4.70	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	8,589	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $2.80? · Above 2.80	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,650	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $2.60? · Above 2.60	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,500	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.00? · Above 3.00	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,538	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.20? · Above 3.20	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,320	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.10? · Above 3.10	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,889	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $2.90? · Above 2.90	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,500	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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