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5Y how low monthly on Kalshi
If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.46% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
84% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.47% in Nov 2026? · 4.46% or below | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 597 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.46% in Nov 2026? · 4.45% or below | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 478 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.48% in Nov 2026? · 4.47% or below | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 467 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.56% in Nov 2026? · 4.55% or below | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 430 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.49% in Nov 2026? · 4.48% or below | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 228 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.50% in Nov 2026? · 4.49% or below | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 188 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.53% in Nov 2026? · 4.52% or below | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 156 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.59% in Nov 2026? · 4.58% or below | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 1 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.51% in Nov 2026? · 4.5% or below | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.52% in Nov 2026? · 4.51% or below | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.54% in Nov 2026? · 4.53% or below | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.55% in Nov 2026? · 4.54% or below | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.58% in Nov 2026? · 4.57% or below | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
| Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.57% in Nov 2026? · 4.56% or below | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 30, 20:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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