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US 10Y Treasury yield hourly on Kalshi
If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.94% at Nov 10, 2026 at 5:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - 10Y UST.
Market says (typical open contract)
95%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 95¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $0.18 | 95.3% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.84% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.94% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.93% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.93% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.92% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.91% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.91% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.90% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.90% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.89% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.88% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.88% | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.87% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.87% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.86% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.86% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.85% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.85% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.83% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.83% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.82% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.82% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.81% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.81% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
| Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.80% on Nov 10 at 5:00am ET? · Above 4.80% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 09:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.